WEATHER BREAKDOWN: Storms Possible Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning

Oklahoma Weather Forecast: Bookmark this page and refresh it often for the latest forecast and daily updates.

Monday, April 15th 2024, 6:20 am

By: News On 6


Breezy and warm weather remains on Monday with highs in the lower 80s.

Strong south winds from 15 to 30 mph will be likely before a storm system brings thunderstorm threats into the area late Monday night and early Tuesday morning.

Some of the storms may be strong or severe. Another front arrives Thursday with some additional storm chances that could linger into the first part of the weekend. A notable cool-down is likely later this week, especially into the weekend.

What will the weather be like this week in Oklahoma?

The strong upper-level system that we've been tracking for many days is now located across the basin of the southwestern states and will begin moving northeast soon.

A dry line is expected to establish across the panhandle region today with moist and unstable conditions developing to the east of the dry line.

But most data suggest a stout layer of warm air aloft (the cap) may limit or suppress severe storm activity for the afternoon and evening hours. A few high-based showers will be possible this afternoon across eastern OK, but this activity will not be severe.

Rain Timeline

Later Monday night as the strongest forcing from the upper-level low moves across the area, storms are likely to develop along and east of the dry line. Simultaneously, a Pacific cold front will also begin moving east and eventually overtake the dry line, providing even more forcing needed for scattered storm development.

Most high-resolution data suggest forcing will be maximized across southwestern OK and well north across western Kansas later on Monday night. Storms are more likely to develop across southern OK and move eastward later into the overnight hours moving into southeastern OK. Closer to I-35, additional storms are likely to form during the overnight hours into Tuesday morning as the Pacific front moves into this area and overtakes the dry line.

Storm Zone 4-15

The strong upper-level forcing will be brushing northwestern OK into central Kansas during this period and ejecting away from the state during the day Tuesday, but the surface front will continue moving east. This means scattered storms will be most likely during the late overnight hours tonight into early Tuesday morning, including a chance for strong to severe storms.

The primary threats will be hail and wind, but storms that form directly along the front could rotate and produce a tornado warning. The main threat for any strong to severe storm activity should exit eastern OK around noon Tuesday as the Pacific front moves out of the area.

On the back side of the system, dry air and strong southwest winds will contribute to increasingly high fire spread rates Tuesday afternoon behind the departing system. This front will push the dry air across the area with low-level moisture stalling across north central Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Another upper-level wave nears the central plains Wednesday night and Thursday morning bringing another cold front across the state mostly Thursday morning to midday with another chance for a few storms.

This front will also cross the area before stalling along the Red River on Friday as another upper-level wave approaches from the west. This will bring some showers and storm activity near or behind the boundary late Friday night into part of Saturday before finally moving south Saturday evening. Cool-weather will arrive behind this system for the latter half of the week.

Highs should drop into the mid to upper 50s and the lower 60s this weekend.

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