Chief Meteorologist David Payne’s Winter Weather Forecast


Thursday, November 5th 2020, 8:03 pm
By: David Payne


OKLAHOMA CITY -

It was nice and quiet this week in Oklahoma but last week in October brought us an ice storm for the record books. The big question: Is that a sign of more crazy winter weather ahead in Oklahoma?

We have been analyzing the data from all around the globe for our winter forecast and here's what we think is going to happen. We're going to have some ice. We're going to have more snow. We're going to have some sleet. We're going to see some cold weather off and on but to what extreme?

Right now, we have a moderate La Niña. It is developing now in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. That's going to be around all winter long. Snow cover on the ground will continue to stack up and pile up. That will make the atmosphere even colder, but the drought will continue and that's also going to be a player.

City snowfall averages now: Last year we had 5.8 inches of snow. We average about 7.5 inches, so last year was a little bit below average.

The water down here is very cool and it's been cool here for a while. It's going to stay cooler than average right through the winter months up north.

We're going to have the polar jet coming out of western Canada down into the U.S. We're going to have what we call the polar vortex area of low pressure dropping out of Canada, as well into the Great Lakes from time to time, and then the subtropical jet will be coming out of the west and southwest across Oklahoma. That's going to be another storm track.

Temperature forecast for November through March: Most of the cold will be to our north at least. Overall, for Oklahoma temperatures, they look to be average to a little bit above average.

What about snowfall? Lots of snow in the northern states. They are going to have a good winter there. For Oklahoma, I think we look like really average to below average on the snowfall statewide.

To sum it up, my winter forecast looks like the temperatures will range from average to slightly above average. We should expect slightly below to average amounts of snow and slightly below average on that in Arctic air.

We'll have it off and on, but we're also going to have lots of mild weather in between. The bottom line: Not a record winter to remember, but we will still have fun.