Thursday, December 7th 2023, 10:37 pm
A few storms will be possible Friday night, mostly across extreme eastern OK before blustery and colder weather returns Saturday. Another storm system may be near the state by the middle of next week.
A strong upper-level trough is now positioned across the northern region of the Rockies and will move eastward over the next few days. This is causing the pressure to fall east of the Rockies. The result is increasing southerly winds at 25 to 40 mph across a large part of Oklahoma. A low-level jet nearing 50 to 60 mph is also positioned near the area this morning and will support strong winds reaching the surface despite the presence of some clouds that may briefly prohibit maximum mixing to the surface. A wind advisory is underway for some locations. The existence of dry vegetation and antecedent drought also support a rapid spread of fire. Low level moisture will slowly arrive from the south by midday to afternoon helping to mitigate this danger some, but outdoor burning should not be attempted today with the expected environmental conditions.
As the upper-level trough draws closer to the state, a surface area of low pressure will develop across the panhandle and then move eastward across the state Friday. A cold front associated with the low will arrive late Friday night. Low level moisture should be streaming into the system early Friday morning and may produce a few areas of mist or drizzle with gusty southeast winds at 15 to 30 mph. A small and spotty shower will be possible. Morning lows Friday will also be in the mid to upper 50s with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 60s with mostly cloudy sky.
Friday night as the stronger winds aloft move across the state, the surface cold front will also pass the metro bringing a very small window for a few showers or storms developing along the front. A layer of warmer air aloft may help to suppress storm development initially, but a few storms seem likely as the boundary moves into east central and southeastern OK during the late evening. A few of the storms could be strong to severe due to the speed shear and deep layer shear with the upper air trough. Most data suggest the front should be rather progressive and exit far southeastern OK between 1am and 3am Saturday morning, taking the threat of strong or severe storms out of the area.
While the surface front moves out of the state, the main upper-level trough will lag with colder air spreading over the state. At the surface, dry air will quickly arrive and should prohibit any precipitation on Saturday. We'll need to monitor trends closely as this pattern could change any light rain into some snow based on the thermal profile of the atmosphere. Most data support some wintry precipitation across part of east-central Kansas into southern to central Missouri. The warm sector of the system will bring severe weather threats to the southeastern U.S. Saturday. Temps Saturday should drop into the upper 30s or lower 40s and remain mostly in the upper 40s or a few lower 50s with gusty northwest winds at 20 to 30 mph. Mostly cloudy conditions are expected until later in the day with clearing sky from the west to east.
Sunday morning starts with temps in the mid to upper 20s in valleys and near 30 in the metro with afternoon highs also remaining in the upper 40s and lower 50s, but with light wind speeds and mostly sunny sky. Another storm system may be near the state by the latter half of next week with increasing precipitation chances and colder weather.
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How to prepare my home for a freeze?
The City of Tulsa says it's important to protect your pipes from the cold.
Officials recommend protecting outside pipes by disconnecting garden hoses from your house and installing covers on outside faucets.
Also, if a sink is along an outside wall of your home, allow a trickle of water to run and open the cabinet doors to allow warm air to circulate.
The National Weather Service says when temperatures drop to 28°F or lower for a couple of hours you should bring pets indoors, protect sensitive vegetation, protect outdoor pipes and let indoor faucets drip and to turn off automatic sprinklers.
Space Heater Safety Tips (via CBS News)
On average, fires caused by portable heaters cause 65 deaths and 150 injuries a year, according to the US Fire Administration.
Overnight on Sunday, firefighters battled several house fires across Tulsa as temperatures dropped below freezing.
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