Another day of relatively cool weather is expected with lows in the 60s and highs in the upper 80s. A few showers or storms will be possible today and this evening before more summerlike weather returns this weekend through most of next week.
The issue today involves the potential for scattered showers and storms as a short-wave trough moves across the area. The data has been consistent with this feature but has been inconsistent regarding the amount or possibility of showers and storms over the past few runs. We’ve been keeping relatively low chances for this system but have decided to bring these pops up slightly for the day based on the amount of low-level moisture already in place and the likelihood of the system moving directly across the area this afternoon and evening. Not every location will experience precip, and many spots will remain dry, but some scattered showers or storms will be kept in the forecast. Highs will remain in the upper 80s today with a mostly cloudy sky and winds returning from the south at 10 to 15 mph. As this wave passes the area early Friday morning, the pattern will support the return of heat and humidity across the state through the weekend and for most of next week. Another strong-looking system moves across the northern plains, around the Dakotas this weekend but the tail end of the wave brushes northern OK Saturday night and Sunday morning with a few scattered storms. Due to the anticipated coverage, this probability also remains on the low side.
As this stout-looking short wave exits the plains, a mid-level subtropical ridge develops across the southeastern U.S. and expands westward into eastern OK for several days next week bringing heat and humidity into heat advisory criteria for these locations. The pressure gradient between a developing trough to our west and the eastern ridge also brings gusty south to southwest winds into the state from 15 to near 30 mph at times this weekend through early next week. This will bring some minor relief, mostly noted in the wet bulb global temps, but heat advisory levels are still expected with heat index values nearing 105 to 108 Sunday into early next week.
The smoky-hazy appearance in the sky should gradually improve today through the weekend with the shift in the upper level and lower atmosphere wind flow. We also continue to think the Atlantic Basin will become more active in the next week. Stay tuned.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.