Gustav affecting Jamaica on way to Gulf

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER  15

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008

1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...GUSTAV CLOSING IN ON JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 350 MILES...560 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO

12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CUBA.  RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TODAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...76.1 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB