Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon and evening across northwestern, west-central and southwestern Oklahoma. There is a slight chance storms develop across central Oklahoma and the Oklahoma City metro area early Wednesday afternoon near an outflow boundary.
Storm development is likely to begin between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m. across western portions of the state. Storms may evolve into a cluster or complex Wednesday evening, and move into central Oklahoma and the Oklahoma City metro area after 8 p.m.
Moisture quality and a lack of strong mid-level winds continue to be a limiting factor with this event. Nevertheless, given the atmospheric profiles I'm seeing, the dominant storms will be capable of producing hail possibly up to the size of tennis balls and baseballs, and damaging winds (downburst and straight-line) in excess of 75 mph. The tornado threat is low, but will slightly elevate for a few hours around dusk. This risk will be most prevalent across northwestern and southwestern Oklahoma.
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