CBS News Projection: Hillary Clinton Wins Nevada Democratic Caucuses

Saturday, February 20th 2016, 5:32 pm
By: News 9

5:18 p.m. CBS News projects Clinton will win the Nevada caucuses. See more from the caucus results here.

4:55 p.m. Here's a look at where Clinton and Sanders are performing best in Nevada:


4:52 p.m.Union members are a key constituency in the Democratic caucus in Nevada. This year just over a quarter of caucusgoers (29 percent) are from union households. Of those, 51 percent are supporting Clinton compared to 45 percent for Sanders. About the same percentage of people from union households attended the caucus in 2008 and split almost evenly with 45 percent supporting Clinton and 44 percent supporting Obama.

4:49 p.m.Seven in of 10 Democratic caucusgoers in Nevada identify as liberal, compared to just over a quarter who describe themselves as moderates. Sanders is winning among those who identify as liberal 53 percent to 44 percent, while almost six in 10 respondents who identify as moderate say they are supporting Clinton.

4:47 p.m. With roughly a third of results reported, the Nevada caucus vote is leaning toward Clinton.


4:41 p.m.More than 60 percent of those attending the Democratic caucus in Nevada today are doing so for the first time. Among first time caucusgoers Sanders is winning 55 percent to Clintons 42 percent.

4:27 p.m. Hispanics, a group Clinton won handily in 2008, are currently breaking for Sanders. Entrance poll results that 54 percent are caucusing for Sanders while 43 percent are caucusing for Clinton. They represent 20 percent of the electorate in 2016, compared to 15 percent in 2008.

That year, Clinton won 64 percent of the Hispanic vote, compared to then-Sen. Barack Obama's 26 percent and then-Sen. John Edwards' 8 percent.

4:18 p.m.Clinton has managed to hang onto her lead over Sanders among women overall, winning 55 to 42 percent among that group. The numbers are almost exactly reversed when it comes to male caucus voters who are supporting Sanders 55 percent compared to 41 percent who expressed their support for Clinton.

Overall the race is in a dead heat:


4:12 p.m.One of the key questions in the Democratic race is whether Hillary Clinton can increase her support among millennials. Early entrance poll data from Democratic caucusgoers in Nevada shows that Bernie Sanders continues to win the support of young people by a large margin.

According to the latest data of the voters ages 17 to 29 -- which represent 18 percent of caucusgoers -- more than 80 percent expressed their support for Sanders compared to just over 10 percent who expressed their support for Clinton. Among those 30 to 44 years old Sanders is doing equally strong, securing support from almost seven in 10 voters, compared to Clinton's three in 10.

Clinton does better than Sanders when it comes to voters older than 45. Among 45 to 64 year olds she gets the support of 56 percent compared to Sanders' 40 percent. She does even better among those over 65 years old, getting the support of almost seven out of 10 of those voters.

3:30 p.m.One issue that has come up in the primary and caucus season for the Democratic candidates is whether they will continue to pursue President Obama's policies or whether they will move in another direction. Very early entrance polls out of Nevada show that almost half of early caucusgoers would like the next president to continue Mr. Obama's policies (49 percent), while four out of ten say they would like the next president to pursue a more liberal policy agenda.

Exit polls in New Hampshire last week showed that Democratic voters were split on this issue - with 40 percent saying they want the next president to continue the current president's policies and 42 percent saying they would like the next president to pursue a more liberal agenda.

In contrast, Democratic voters in Iowa favored continuing Mr. Obama's policies (55 percent) while three out of ten said they would like the next president to move in a more liberal direction.

Nevada Democratic caucus entrance polls show nearly three-quarters of women under the age of 45 are supporting Bernie Sanders:


Again, the entrance data out of Nevada is still early and may change as the numbers continue to come in.

3:22 p.m.Early Democratic caucusgoers in Nevada seem split fairly evenly when it comes to what candidate quality matters the most in their decision as to who they should support.

Approximately a quarter of respondents said they want someone who cares about people like them (26 percent), another quarter said they want someone who is honest and trustworthy (25 percent) and an equal percentage (25 percent) said they want someone who has the right experience. Approximately 20 percent said the most important quality they are looking for in their candidate is someone who can win in November.


3:17 p.m.Early caucusgoers in Nevada say that the two most important issue facing the country are the economy (34 percent) and income inequality (29 percent). This is followed by health care at 21 percent. Only 9 percent of Democratic caucusgoers so far have suggested that terrorism is the most important issue facing the nation today.

Here's the breakdown by candidate support:


This is similar to what we learned from Democratic voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, where the economy, income inequality, and health care were seen as the most important issues, while terrorism was consistently at the bottom of the list.

In New Hampshire, the economy topped the list (33 percent), with income inequality almost equal at 32 percent and health care at 23 percent.

Similarly in Iowa, the economy topped the list at 33 percent, while health care came in second at 30 percent and income inequality came in third at 27 percent.

The results coming out of Nevada are still early and we may see some movement as the data continues to come in.

3:05 p.m.Based on very early entrance poll data out from the Nevada Democratic caucus almost 70 percent of respondents who arrived early made up their mind as to who they were going to support -- and they did so more than a month ago.

In contrast, just 14 percent made up their mind last month and 15 percent made up their mind sometime in the last week or more recently.

3:00 p.m.Based on early entrance poll arrivals, the Democratic race is close.

2:52 p.m.Based on early interviews from CBS News entrance polling, the economy and income inequality are the top issues for Nevada Democratic caucusgoers.

Thirty-five percent of Nevada Democratic voters place the "economy/jobs" as the most important campaign issue, with income inequality registering as the most important for 27 percent of those surveyed. Twenty-one percent list health care as their top issue, while nine percent rank terrorism highest.

The most important candidate quality for Nevada Democratic voters include being "honest and trustworthy" (26 percent), having the "right experience" (25 percent), and caring about "people like me" (24 percent). Twenty percent view electability as the most important candidate quality.

About half of Democratic caucusgoers would like to see the next president continue President Obama's policies, while four in 10 want to change to more liberal policies. Nine percent say that they want a president with less liberal policies.

2:00 p.m. Nevada voters are showing up to caucus sites across the state to express support for their preferred candidate in the third Democratic nominating contest for president.

CBS News will conduct entrance polls with Nevadans headed into their caucus sites, and results will be posted in this space. There will be live analysis at the CBS News digital network, CBSN.

Voters can choose from Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley suspended his bid after the Iowa caucuses earlier this month. The state's Republican caucuses will be held on Tuesday.

Caucusing officially begins at 3 p.m. ET when Democrats will be sorting themselves into their candidate preference groups. They will move to different sides of the room to show which candidate they support.

Same-day registration will be available for new voters, or Republicans and independents who want to register as Democrats.

Nevada has 43 delegates in total, but 20 are superdelegates, 8 of which are unpledged and 12 are pledged already. The remaining 23 delegates will be up for grabs on Saturday. Delegates are awarded based on the tallies in the caucuses and the number of delegates up for grabs at each of the caucuses. The winner will be the candidate who wins the largest amount of delegates.

CBS News Poll Analyst Jeanne Zaino andCBS News' Rebecca Shabad, Reena Flores and Rebecca Kaplan contributed to this report.

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