BULLETIN

HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER  21

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008

500 AM AST SAT SEP 06 2008


...MAJOR HURRICANE IKE STILL HEADING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF

THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE

NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN

PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN

REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS

ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS

THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND

PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.


A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  A

HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN

THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.


A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA LATER

TODAY.


ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH

FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS

OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.1 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES...425

KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.


IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.  A

CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY

OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING BY SUNDAY.  ON

THIS TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND

CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR EARLY

SUNDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF

EASTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE

DURING THIS PERIOD.


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125

MILES...205 KM.


THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.


STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...

ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF

THE CENTER OF IKE.


RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND

SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.


REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...22.4 N...67.1 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115

MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.


AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

AM AST.


$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB