Tracking Rain Chances Soon

Friday, September 5th 2014, 4:34 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning and welcome to Friday. We're tracking a cold front that will move into the state today and tonight bringing a decent shot of showers and thunderstorms to portions of northern and eastern OK. The exact timing of the boundary could still change, but we continue to think the initial wind shift will arrive as early as 6pm or as late at 10pm. I'm leaning toward the earlier arrival time. A few thunderstorms may develop along or slightly ahead of the boundary ( HR3 about 3pm or so) , but most data continue to support post frontal precipitation for most of the event. The severe weather threat, while not zero, remains low and mainly confined to some strong wind issues for a short time period. Cloud to ground lightning will also be a threat tonight for a few hours. This is a big night for Friday Night Football across the state. Even if storms are below severe levels, cloud to ground lighting obviously is a threat that should always be respected and taken seriously. No football game, marching band halftime, or any outdoor sporting event should occur with cloud to ground lighting in the near vicinity. Many, if not all, local districts and schools have policies and procedures in place for inclement weather, including cloud to ground lightning. If you are a decision maker for a game, don't gamble. Play it safe and wait it out.

The temperatures today should climb back into the lower or even mid-90s along with south winds before the boundary arrives sometime this evening. Temperatures will drop into the 70s behind the boundary later tonight and will fall into the lower or mid-60s Saturday morning along with some lingering showers for the first half of the day. Data has suggested a few hours of elevated cape overnight which may keep some thunder in the forecast through about 3am, but the trend will be for mainly showers Saturday pre-dawn through the mid-morning hours. The actual surface boundary will be moving closer to the Red River Valley Saturday evening, but a few showers may linger through midday across northern OK before diminishing. Cloud cover combined with northeast winds and some lingering precip lead me to keep Saturday below some of the computer model suggestions for highs. We're continuing to suggest highs in the 73 to 76 range for most of northern and eastern OK.

Sunday morning the temps should drop into the lower 60s or even a few upper 50s followed by afternoon highs in the lower 80s with northeast winds and partly sunny conditions.

Both EURO and GFS data have been suggesting one or two short waves moving across the central plains states early next week. The models have not been consistent regarding the outcome of these waves, but a few thunderstorms would be possible across southern Kansas and possibly northern OK Sunday night through Tuesday morning. This probability will remain out of the forecast until Tuesday morning.

Despite the early inconsistencies with the short waves, the data has been very consistent in a pattern change late next week. This would unleash some cool Canadian air moving southeast across the Hudson Bay to upper Midwest region. This leading edge of cooler air would arrive sometime Wednesday or Thursday of next week with a chance of showers or storms along the accompanying surface boundary. I don't feel comfortable throwing out surface temps for next Friday and Saturday, but the pattern would support a significant cool down for northern and eastern sections of the state for at least Thursday with highs in the upper 70s near 80.