Some Economists Believe Double Dip Recession Ahead

By Ed Murray, NEWS 9

OKLAHOMA CITY -- Consumer confidence in the economy eroded further last month. The reading raises concern about the recovery and the upcoming back to school shopping season. But there's another survey out that indicates a "double dip" recession.

a double dip is a recession.. followed by growth... followed quickly by another recession. Three weeks ago.. Keith Geary of Geary Securities told us the ECRI index was 100 percent accurate at predicting a recession when it reaches minus 10 percent. Today... it's at minus 10 1/2. But what and who is the ECRI?

"They're economists, researchers, professors. These are the smart guys," said Keith Geary, Geary Securities Chairman.

Keith Geary, Geary Securities Chairman, said the people that put together the ECRI index are "economists, researchers, professors. These are the smart guys." Their track record for the past 40 years is 6 for 6, but many are hoping this time it's wrong.

"I see plenty of things to support their information...weakening GDP, still high unemployment, government spending, debt as a percentage of GDP is getting to be extraordinary," Geary said.

But economists use thousands of charts to determine recessions from manufacturing and unemployment claims to light vehicle claims and new home sales.

"The ECRI has the most current, it has a feel of what's really going on right now. Too many of the economic releases rely on data from several months ago," Geary said.

Unemployment is one of the big reasons consumer confidence is falling again.

"The real rate of unemployment when you look at the people that would like to find a job... like to find a better job than the one they have accepted is in the range of 15 to 20 percent," Geary said.

The GDP ratio is now estimated to be 100 percent for the next budget.

"We're going to be handing out as much money as GDP growth and that has always been a bad sign for the economy," said Geary.

Many economists don't agree with Geary, but keep in mind what playwright George Bernard Shaw once said "If all economists were laid end to end, they wouldn't reach a conclusion."

Second quarter growth numbers are due out Friday and are expected to show a decline from the first quarter.